Newsletter 120 - The Two Sessions

What are the “Two Sessions” meetings

This Guardian article is a good starting point to understand the event:

China’s annual “two sessions” meetings begin on Saturday (March 4th), with major reforms and government appointments expected, as well as the final formalization of Xi Jinping’s precedent-busting third term as China’s leader.

The event is called the “two sessions” because both the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) hold their annual meetings separately, but at the same time. The CPPCC is an advisory body, and the 3,000-member NPC is the CCP’s legislative body, but is largely a “rubber stamping” parliament. Its members include business executives, celebrities, and celebrated individuals – state media on Monday reported one of the country’s first female fighter pilots had been made a delegate.

Thousands of delegates will descend on Beijing to ratify legislation, personnel changes and the government budget over about two weeks.

The “two sessions” is often when we also see major policy announcements. In 2021 Beijing extended its control over the once semi-autonomous city of Hong Kong, announcing a political overhaul to ensure it was run by “patriots only”, meaning Communist Party loyalists. In 2020 the “two sessions” pushed through the Hong Kong national security law, which became the linchpin of the crackdown on opposition and dissent in the city.

And it was at the 2018 NPC that leadership term limits were abolished, paving the way for Xi to become leader for life.

What is happening this year

New York Times has a report on March 6th on what is happenning:

(On Economy): In a sign of Beijing’s concern about the challenges of reinvigorating the economy, the premier, Li Keqiang, said that China would aim to expand growth by “around 5 percent” this year, a relatively modest target.

(On Xi’s power): The congress will almost certainly give him a groundbreaking third term as state president, atop his main title of Communist Party general secretary. And Mr. Xi will also use the congress to reorganize state ministries and agencies, centralizing more policy-making around him and the party.

(On relation to the World): In a sign of the importance Beijing places on asserting its position in the world, the government also plans to raise its military budget by 7.2 percent, which would increase spending to nearly $225 billion, despite the strains that might impose on state finances. Spending on the foreign ministry and other diplomatic efforts will grow even faster, by 12.2 percent.

(On reducing reliance on the West): Mr. Xi has also urged his party to take a more hands-on approach in developing the country’s science and technology capabilities to reduce its reliance on Western expertise. This directive has become more urgent as the United States has tightened restrictions on exports to China.

BBC has an interesting report on the business class (in Chinese): in the “Two Sessions”, who are out and who are in.

Of the representatives in the “Two Sessions”, there are in total 81 billionaires (valued at more than 1 billion USD), 41 in the National People’s Congress, and 40 in the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, representing 1.4 and 1.8 percent of the total number of NPC deputies and CPPCC members, respectively.

Some famous tech billionaires are out, for example, Pony Ma of Tencent, Ding Lei of 163.net, Li Yanhong of Baidu, Liu Qiangdong of JD. Jack Ma has never participated in the “Two Sessions”, and now he is visiting old friends in Australia.

Xu Jiayin CEO of Evergrande is out too, along with several other real estate tycoons.

Those who are still in include Zeng Yumin, founder of battery producer CATL, Lei Jun, founder of Xiaomi, and Li Zeju, the son of the famous Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing.

Newcomers include, He Xiaopeng, founder of Xpeng, a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer.

Tang Xiaoou, founder of SenseTime, an artificial intelligence company with headquarter in Hong Kong.

Zheng Zhigang, the heir to the HK-based, privately-owned conglomerate Chow Tai Fook group.

I guess it could be a good way for Mark Mobius to decide which companies to invest in.

Comments from Chinese social media

During the “Two Sessions”, new laws are proposed, discussed and voted on.

Unlike Western media, inside China, people are mostly interested in the new law proposals. Every year, there are proposals that attract people’s attention.

One comment on social media came from a law professor Luo Xiang (who is very popular and surprisingly able to express his opinions on social media).

According to Li Laoshi, Luo Xiang posted on Weibo criticizing Collective Punishment. This proposal is especially relevant because the government often punishes the children if their parents violated the law. This punishment is very widely practised, especially during COVID period, when the authority threatened adults through their children to force the adults to comply. One young man told the authority that “we are the last generation” in response, and “the last generation” became viral on Chinese social media.

However, on Chinese social media, many people disagree with Prof. Luo Xiang: they strongly believe that the children deserve to be punished.

Picking quarrels and provoking trouble is coded as a crime in Chinese criminal law. This “crime” is often used to suppress any public display of dissent. Prof. Luo Xiang has argued in the past that this crime should be eliminated. Zhu Zhengfu, a delegate to the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and vice-chair of the All China Lawyers Association, argued that the law should be eliminated during the Two Sessions. Again, on Chinese social media, many people defended the law and argued against its elimination.

Billionaire complains that he cannot wire his money out of China

On FOX Business, billionaire investor Mark Mobius says he cannot take money out of China.

Billionaire investor Mark Mobius told FOX Business he cannot take his money out of China due to the country’s capital controls, cautioning investors to be “very, very careful” about investing in an economy under a tight government grip.

“I have an account with HSBC in Shanghai. I can’t take my money out. The government is restricting flow of money out of the country,” Mobius, founder of Mobius Capital Partners, told FOX Business in an interview published on March 2.

“I can’t get an explanation of why they’re doing this … They’re putting all kinds of barriers. They don’t say: No, you can’t get your money out. But they say: give us all the records from 20 years of how you made this money … This is crazy.”

Mobius’ comments were circulated on Chinese social media site WeChat at the weekend.

Mobius led emerging market investment at Franklin Templeton Investments for three decades and is known for his bullish view on China. Now, though, he said, he “would be very, very careful” investing in the country.

Just one year ago, Mobius was still urging foreign investors to put their money into China. Now “India and Taiwan are top of the list now but I’m also looking closely at Indonesia and Thailand”

Le Monde reports on Xi Jinping

It is widely believed by Chinese that Xi Jinping has had very little former education and is extremely ignorant about the world. But, it is not well known outside China. Recently, a renowned (but anonymous) international affair scholar in China felt compelled to talk to Le Monde to air the dirty laundry to the world: “Xi Jinping does not understand the world”: the confidences of a Chinese scholar

He is one of China’s most recognized experts on international relations. Regularly consulted by the Chinese media, he usually declines interviews with foreign media. And if he agrees to meet Le Monde, it is only “off the record”: his comments are outside of the imposed self-censorship to which most voices inside China are now bound.

It is perhaps the fact that he felt necessary to talk to Foreign media that impress me the most.

I have said many times in this newsletter that what Xi and his goons are doing to China shocked me and worried me deeply. Now, let me present some excerpts of what this International relationship expert thinks of Xi:

«There will be no war with the United States because our leaders, who are among the richest men in the country, have put their money and some of their relatives, including their mistresses, in the United States and they will never have the courage to give up these advantages»

As much as he considers «reunification» with Taiwan as a legitimate objective, he considers a Chinese military intervention to be hardly credible. […] Nevertheless, he laments, the risk is not zero, because Xi Jinping wants to be «bigger than Mao and reunite Taiwan».

In his view, China, like the United States, is both advancing and regressing. “In terms of technology, it is a superpower. But in terms of freedom of expression and the political situation, we are even going back to the Cultural Revolution,” he concludes.

Hong Kong actor going from the “Two Sessions” to the Oscars ceremony

Donnie Yen is a familiar name to moviegoers in the West, having appeared in the Star Wars series Rogue One as the blind warrior, and before that in a number of martial arts movies. He will appear in the new movie “John Wick: Chapter 4”.

Lately, he was invited to be a presenter at this year’s Oscars award ceremony.

John Wick 4 Star Donnie Yen’s Oscars Invitation Sparks Hong Kong Backlash:

The controversy stems from Yen’s support for the Communist Party-led Chinese government and his stance on the pro-democracy protests, which he confirmed in a recent interview with GQ, stating, “It wasn’t a protest, okay, it was a riot.”

Yen previously became the subject of controversy after he and Mulan co-star Liu Yifei expressed support for the Hong Kong Police Force, who had been criticized by the international community for the use of brutal tactics against pro-democracy protesters. Shortly after a draconian national security law was imposed on Hong Kong by Beijing, Yen continued to express support for the Chinese government and its hold on the special administrative region, fondly recalling a night of celebration with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

And of course, this year Yen was seen at the “Two Sessions” as a representative.

If you are interested in supporting the Hong Kong petition to recall Yen from the Oscars ceremony, you can sign the petition on change.org.