In recently years, the lower than expected statistics on births attracted public attention. This chart tells the story well:
The data from the last few years prompted a “three-kid” policy from the government in 2021. In reality, three children are not only allowed, but also actively enforced on female employees of government jobs and state owned enterprises.
The fertility rate is falling despite these government policies. The current fertility rate of Chinese women is 1.3. Chinese people are looking at their neighbour South Korea, which has a 0.84 fertility rate in 2020, falling from 1.3 in 2001. As we mentioned in our newsletter 20, the two countries share a lot of cultural similarities. Some of the factors that lead to low birth rate in South Korea can be found in China also. We will talk about these in the next section.
Another stats that shocked people this year is the statistics on marriages: “according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, among the 170 million of youth born in the 1990s, only 10 million marriages registered so far.” This implies that only 11% of young people between 22 and 31 are married. It seems too low.
This data is widely circulated and widely debated. Many people think it is wrong. Someone went through the data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China and calculated that the actual percentage is around 41%. He also calculated the same stats for people born in 1970s married by the year 1999: 64%, and people born in the 1980s married by the year 2009: 49%. Yes, the percentage is declining, but not as shocking as the 11% being circulated.
However, many people, especially young people feel related to the 11% numbers. They flooded social media with comments like: “Boy am I exhausted with my 996 jobs and I don’t want to date any more.”
One lazy person decided to ask the government on the number directly. He asked on the government website: “Is this headline data real? Is it official data?”
The government actually responded:
Hello. [sic]
Data on marriage registration and divorce registration has been published by our Ministry through the Ministry of Civil Affairs portal and the China Civil Affairs Statistical Yearbook.
For other data, it is recommended to consult the relevant departments specifically.
Reply by: Department of Social Affairs, Ministry of Civil Affairs
What a perfectly clear response!
So, what are the reasons of this sharp declining fertility rate? In South Korea, people listed 5 reasons.
- Sex preference: sex selection of birth in the 20th century. Check, China has it too.
- Education cost: the Confucius values link higher education with higher social economic status, pushing up education cost. Check, China has it too.
- Society of extreme competition. Check, China has it too. Recently there is an internet slang, “Neijuan”, involution. It describe, the social consequences of the extreme competition.
- Female labor force: women choose to get more education and postpone marriage to better their living standard. Check, China has it too.
- Increased divorce rate. Check, China has it too.
I am not very familiar with South Korea. But from what I observed in China, there are some other phenomenons that are making it harder for young people to think of marriage or children.
There are many reports on negligence from the police when severe domestic violence against women were reported. Men get away with very little punishment. Such news often spark outrage among women.
Here is an example reported in Chinese media: “Recently, according to the verdict of the People’s Court of Baoying County, the plaintiff wife requested a divorce from the defendant husband on the grounds, among others, that he had been convicted of attempted rape against his mother-in-law. The court disallowed the divorce on the grounds that the couple had a deep emotional foundation.”
It makes sense: to make sure people stay in marriage, the government makes it super hard to get a divorce.
Every time I saw news like this, I tell myself: you have got to be really stupid or desperate to date or marry in China.
The cost of raising children is not just financial. Chinese men are famous for not taking care of their young children. There is a phrase, “raising children as if the father is dead”.
In the melon of Wang Leehom and Lee Jinglei, you can say, Lee Jinglei was raising her kids as if the father is dead. In this sense, family culture of Taiwan is very similar to the Mainland. I would guess that South Korean women have similar situation.
Different from South Korea, China has this Hukou system. It created immense problems. The left over children is the one that breaks my heart.
During the economic booms in China, migrant workers from the country side flooded Chinese cities. They are without doubt the backbone of the economic power. However, due to the Hukou system, they are not allowed to have resident status in the place where they work.
As a result, their children can’t attend local schools. The parents have no other option but to send the kids to the grandparents in the countryside. These kids are called left over children. Most of them were born in the 1990s and 2000s. As they grew up, they had inadequate education, they had very distant relationship with their parents. When they think about having children, they see the children will suffer the same fate as theirs.
Why bother then?
Many other reasons were found on the low birth rate of young people in the countryside, but to me, the young people’s disillusion on the Chinese caste system based on the Hukou system is convincing.
An economist named Ren Zeping came to help. He was the chief economist of the Evergrande group, so he must know a few things about what he says, especially when he segued from real estate to demography.
On Jan 10th, he proposed in his report that the Bank of China should print 2 trillion yuan to give to families who want to have more children in the next ten years, to have 50 million extra kids.
His report got media attention and became a hot topic in social media. Especially, media quoted the report: “We must take the window of opportunity that the people born in 1975-1985 can still have kids. We need to establish the birth-fund as soon as possible. We can’t count on the people born after 1990. The reason is simple, those born in 1975-1985 still think the more children the merrier. Those born after 1990, they don’t want a second or a third kid. They don’t even want to get married. “
Already, he got lots of criticism in the media today for this proposal. People think the 2 trillion yuan would cause other economic problems. They call him attention seekers.
That reminds me of an episode at the end of last year. Mr. Ren was giving a live Douyin (Chinese tiktok) presentation. The title is “What are the biggest risks for investment in 2022”:
He had seven risks. The second one was:
Would China become the country with the most severe population crisis in the world? Would we overdo the “common prosperity” and end up “common poverty”?
Douyin live was promptly ended.
People joked that Douyin solved the other 5 risks.
For your information, “common prosperity” is a flagship slogan of the dear supreme leader.
Today, American Investor Ray Dalio, founder of the $150 billion investment firm Bridgewater Associates, urged countries including the U.S. to narrow their wealth gaps, while praising China’s drive for “common prosperity” .
It seems to me that Ray Dalio is much smarter than Ren Zeping.